Why We Invested in TBD: Financializing Verified Human Sentiment

Prediction markets are having a cultural moment, but most platforms share the same structural constraint. They list similar real-world events and determine outcomes using the same external data sources. Liquidity concentrates. Differentiation erodes.

We invested in TBD because it changes the resolution layer itself.

TBD is a prediction market built on human sentiment rather than traditional oracle-based market resolution mechanisms. Markets settle based on how a defined, cryptographically verified demographic votes on a question. By operating both the polling infrastructure and the trading venue, TBD creates a vertically integrated system for collecting and pricing opinions. In our view, that architectural shift is the foundation of the opportunity.

Rewriting the Resolution Layer

TBD consists of two tightly integrated components. The first is a permissionless polling protocol. Anyone can create a survey and define the demographic that can participate, including geography, income, or other attributes. Respondents must verify personhood through World ID or, in the future, high fidelity zkTLS attestations such as bank or credential-based proofs. This ensures votes come from real, unique humans and directly addresses the bot contamination that undermines traditional survey platforms.

The second layer is a Solana-based prediction market where traders speculate on how that specific group will answer. Markets are short duration, typically resolving within hours to a few days. Resolution is straightforward: the option that receives the most verified votes wins.

Because markets are determined by how a defined group votes, thoughtful market design is critical. TBD implements safeguards to reduce reflexivity and adverse selection risks inherent in “how will this group vote” markets. Identity verification and demographic gating further ensure that only eligible participants can influence outcomes.

This structure eliminates reliance on third-party oracles and generates a proprietary dataset of verified human sentiment. That dataset is native to TBD and not shared with competing venues. In a category where new entrants often struggle to differentiate from incumbents, we view this data and resolution control as a durable advantage.

Turning Opinion into Infrastructure

The opportunity extends beyond trading. The global market research industry is large but slow and increasingly unreliable. Surveys can cost thousands of dollars and take weeks to complete, with persistent bot issues. TBD compresses that cycle to near real-time and embeds financial incentives directly into participation. Trading fees subsidize respondents. Market creators earn a meaningful share of fees, driving organic distribution and lowering customer acquisition costs.

Over time, we see a path from discrete markets to sentiment indexes, derivatives, and enhanced data services. As the dataset compounds, it becomes increasingly valuable to businesses, governments, media, and AI systems seeking timely and trustworthy human insight.

Early Product Market Fit

TBD launched a private beta in October 2025. Within a few months, the platform has onboarded more than 225,000 verified users without paid acquisition, generated millions of votes, and created over four thousand markets. Trading volume has grown rapidly during the invite-only phase, and TBD is currently one of the top apps within the World ecosystem.

This traction has been achieved with a team of three and minimal prior funding. Engagement metrics suggest the product resonates not only as a financial venue but as a consumer application. That combination is difficult to engineer and rare in crypto.

A Team Built for Market Design

Corey Miller and Taehoon Lee previously led dYdX’s Trade Anything team for three years. They built and launched permissionless markets, the first onchain prediction market perpetual, automated liquidity vaults that attracted significant deposits, and core infrastructure for the dYdX Chain.

Their experience directly informs TBD. They understand market structure, liquidity engineering, and how to ship complex onchain systems. Corey also brings prior investing experience from BlockTower and Scout Ventures. Taehoon’s background includes engineering roles at Snapchat and Google. Founding engineer Jason Wong is a two-time founder and former senior engineer at Datadog with deep crypto infrastructure experience.

The team is lean, high agency, and product driven. From our earliest conversations, it was clear that Corey has spent years thinking about how markets seek to surface truth. TBD is a natural extension of that work.

Our Perspective

We believe TBD is building a new primitive: the ability to financialize verified human sentiment at scale.

Now you can actually poll the experts, not the armchair commentators on social media but verified domain specialists credentialed through cryptographic attestations, and monetize non-consensus views. You can encourage new discourse by allowing minority opinions to be priced rather than suppressed. You can create an open-source, free-market based check on how narratives are formed and propagated. In our view, that is not just a market innovation. It is potentially societally meaningful. By combining identity infrastructure with short duration markets and aligned incentives, TBD transforms opinion into a liquid asset class. In a world defined by information velocity and growing distrust in traditional data sources, a protocol that can reliably capture and price human belief has the potential to become foundational.

We are excited to support the team as they scale the voter base, deepen liquidity, and expand into broader derivative and data products over time.

For informational purposes only, nothing herein should be construed as investment advice nor an offering to buy or sell any security or investment. Views expressed by any individuals are solely those of the individual author or speaker and do not necessarily reflect the views of CMT Digital. Views and opinions are as of the date provided and subject to change without notice.

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